Ashes to Ashes, funky to funky, we know Major Tom's a junky

So it's finally here. The Ashes. The biggy. The bee's knees. The cat's pyjamas.

And already it's a cop out.

Australia won the toss and are 198/3. Game over. It's 4.23am in Ireland watching Ingerland getting trounced, and I'm loving it.

Stumps prediction: Australia 345/6 (Ponting 131*)

Series prediction: Australia 3, Ingerland 1.

The War hits home

Just read Peter King’s Monday Morning Quarterback on Si.com. He’s in touch with a Sergeant Mike Maguire in Iraq. Maguire lost one of his men, Sargeant Bevington, on Sunday. I’m not an American, and for the first time the war really hit home.

* * *

Senator John Danforth- a former Republican and now ordained minister- someone who can discuss the influence of the Far Right on the GOP without going crazy.

Five Years On

Today is the 5th anniversary of 9/11. At the time I was on a train from Rome to Bologna when I got a text off my sister to say that US airspace was closed but I should be okay for getting home (I was leaving on the 14th). I hadn't got a clue what she was talking about. It was only when we were reached the hostel in Bologna that we found out what happened. We then went into town and were accosted by a distraught American girl (who was quite hot) on the street asking us if we had heard what happened. One of the lads had an American Airlines tag on his bag and she had latched on to that.

It was bizarre day, the rumours of dozens of planes, the talk in the hostel that night. A strange night. And nobody knew what it all meant. I look back on it now like it was a dream.

I didn't quite grasp it though. To some degree it passed me by. Then I went to New York, saw the void of Ground Zero, and looked up at the sky scrapers and tried to imagine looking up and seeing a plane fly into one of them.

Since then I've developed an unhealthy interest in the events. I find myself online late at night watching the news coverage on You Tube, replaying the gasps and exclamations from the broadcasters as they watched the second plane hit, David Letterman's charged interview with Dan Rather a few days after the attacks. A documentary made by two French brothers who happened to be filming a fire crew at the time has become required viewing. The sound of the bodies crashing to the ground outside the Towers is one that endures.

And now I work for an American investment bank. I deal with the New York head office all day. The firm occupies one of the World Financial Centre buildings and part of another. Those buildings are part of my enduring image of 9/11. When I see the WTC site, my enduring memory is of the WFC buildings overlooking the site.

I talk to the guys in New York all day. We make jokes, we have a laugh, I'm in the NFL Fantasy League with the guys. And I try to imagine what it would have been like five years ago if I had been in the office, chatting with the guys, and then That happened.

It makes you think.

Chaos at Kennington

I'm sitting watching the chaos at the Oval in the 5th Test this evening. Darrel Hair is refusing to come out for the remainder of the Test after a dispute over a ball tampering accusation made against the Pakistanis.

Pakistan refused to come out after tea and eventually were persuaded to take the field, only for Umpire Hair to decide not to come out.

Now, my thought is this. Would this happen in a football match? Or a rugby match? It is a nonsense, and it sums up the ICC's incompetence in running the game. There should have been no dispute. Part of the initial dispute seems to have been centred on the fact that Pakistan cannot appeal the accusation at stumps tonight. When they refused to take the pitch after tea, the umpires removed the bails indicating the that Pakistan had forfeited the match and the match was over. Now the law is an ass, but the law's the law. The umpires have made the decision and their decision is final. When a team tries to undermine the umpires' authority then that is the ball game. It is indicative of the ICC that they cannot even back their people in such an important time.

One more thing, and once again it is a gripe against the ICC. Nobody in the ground seemed to know what was going on. There were no announcements, no nothing. If you didn't have a radio to listen to TMS, or a pocket sized TV with Sky, then you would not have known what was going on and be left hanging for ages.

Holy Hell

I'm after seeing the new and controversial Haka performed by the All Blacks against the Aussies this morning. Terrifying.

Pulllllll!

So Vice-President Dick Cheney has accidentally shot a man on a quail hunt in South Texas. Harry Whittington, 78, is said to be "doing fine" after Cheney sprayed him in the cheek, chest and neck with shotgun pellets.

I've just one thought on this: it's reassuring to know that the second most powerful man in the world's most powerful country, the guy who's next in line for the launch codes, can mistake a man for a bird about six inches in length, isn't it.

An XL Prediction

Seattle v Pittsburgh (Ford Field, Detroit)
Well this is it, the big kahuna burger. It’s Superbowl time, and it’s time for my final prediction of the season (well maybe I’ll predict the Pro Bowl, who knows). I was going to do a big long piece about this game. About how the combination of Willie Parker and Jerome Bettis on the ground with Big Ben to Hines Ward and Randle El through the air would be too much for the Seahawks but it’s now three minutes before kick off so time is short.

I don’t know why, but I’ve had a late change of heart. Until yesterday I was all Pittsburgh but the last twenty four hours I’ve looked at Matt Hasselbeck and his no name receiver corps and Sean Alexander on the ground, and crucially I’m looking at the Seahawks D against Carolina in the NFC Championship game.

I still can’t believe it but I’m picking the Seahawks.
Seahawks 21 Steelers 18

A Dissenting Voice

When the Redskins hired Al Saunders last week, it was widely hailed as another excellent piece of work by Dan Snyder. Following on the retention of Assistant Head Coach (Defence) Greg Williams immediately after the playoffs, the general opinion was that Saunders, who had ran the most prolific offense in the NFL over the last three years in Kansas, would solve a Redskins offense that had struggled badly in the playoffs.

The only caveat, it seemed, came from Mike Shanahan who had mentioned to Sports Illustrated's Peter King that there were now an awful lot of coaches in Redskins Park and that it could be a case of too many chefs.

Well, that is a very valid opinion and one that I tend to agree with. For example, just what are Joe Bugel and Don Breaux going to do now that Saunders has come in and effectively taken their jobs? We've already seen Bill Musgrave resign from his position as Quarterbacks Coach to take a similar position with Atlanta. Was that a direct result of Saunders appointment?

I have another question though. One that does not seem to have been addressed in the various column inches that have followed Saunders' appointment. Is he really needed?

Yes, the Skins struggled terribly in the post-season, especially against Tampa. Yes, Clinton Portis has averaged only 4.1 yards per carry since he arrived in the capital after averaging 5.5 in Denver. Yes, time and time again the offense could not match the superb efforts of the defense. But, no, the problems did not stem from the offensive system in place. It had more to do with the personnel, or more specifically the lack thereof. And that is a problem that could be easily solved.

Let's look at the basic numbers this past year:

This season Portis ran for a franchise record 1,516yds and eleven touchdowns. He also had a franchise record eight games when he ran for 100yds or more. Wide receiver Santana Moss caught 84 balls for a record 1,483yds with ten catches worth forty yards or more. Chris Cooley, a second year tight end/H Back remember, had 71 catches for over 700 yards. Even Mark Brunell, almost run out of town last year, returned as starter and threw a career high twenty-three touchdowns against ten interceptions and probably shoud have gone to the Pro Bowl.

Not that bad for a team that apparently so struggled with the ball.

The problem for Washington, and what killed them in the post-season, was the lack of a second wide receiver, a battered running back, an injured quarterback, and a shattered offensive line. Not the run heavy offensive system.

David Patten, who was signed as a possesion wideout from New England, was put on Injured Reserve after nine games but up to then had not been a factor with only twenty-two catches for 217 yards. Come free agency in March it is widely expected that the 'Skins will go after either Pittsburgh's Antwaan Randle-El or Indy's Reggie Wayne. If they get either of these two, then you can expect that second receiver problem to be solved. Even Terrell Owens, for all his disruptive influence off the pitch, is a heck of a player and may come under consideration. With any of these three you can expect Joe Bugel's job would be a lot easier.

Clinton Portis hardly carried in Tampa or Seattle due to sore shoulders. This was wear and tear after a long season. Portis is a terrific player, a tough player. He loves nothing better than going up the middle where only the crazy or foolish dare go. He also blocks like a full back. His body though cannot take the battering it takes. There is just not enough of him. He's the same height as Jerome Bettis but some four stone lighter. You could have expected his workload to be lightened next year as Ladell Betts and Rock Cartwright get more action. The plays Coach Gibbs called weren't at fault in the playoffs, he just didn't have his star half back available to him.

Mark Brunell was excellent all season but his accuracy collapsed after straining his knee against the Giants in week sixteen. He was clearly unfit in the games that followed but Gibbs stuck him in there even after Patrick Ramsey had come in and finished off the Giants and generally played well. Once again, the system didn't cause Brunell's late season struggles; it was injury.

The offensive line was in trouble once Randy Thomas went down against Dallas with a broken leg and they struggled thereafter but once again it wasn't the system that wore down the O line.

All in all the Redskins had a fine season. After going 6-10 last year did anybody honestly think they would come within an ace of making it to the Championship game? Does anybody really feel the offense was thatbad? So bad in fact, that Joe Bugel had to have his job essentially taken off him and for Joe Gibbs, one of the great offensive minds of all time, to cede control of an offense he cherishes?

One more question. What does Gregg Williams make of all this? He has been earmarked as the heir apparent to Gibbs since he joined two years ago. He could have had his choice of head coaching jobs this off season after helping create one of the most feared defensive units in the league. Only when Snyder broke the bank did he agree to stay. Now, a fortnight after he signed on the dotted line, he sees a possible contender walk through the door to great fanfare. Did he know Saunders was coming when he signed?

Depending on who you are Dan Snyder is a great owner and Joe Gibbs is undoubtedly a great coach. I just hope he knows exactly what he's doing here. Al Saunders, offensive guru that he is, may just be more trouble that he's worth.

Championship Weekend

Right I'm writing this during the first quarter of Seattle and Carolina. I don't know the score of the first game and I haven't yet seen a play in this game so you can take these as honest predictions. Then again after last weeks debacle I'm probably better off waiting till after the games to predict them...

Pittsburgh @ Denver
This is a tough one. Denver are at home and have beaten the reigning champions last week. Jake Plummer's been excellent this season as has the Denver running game but speaking of running games the Steeler's is second to none and the force is with the Bus and you saw the game against the Colts.
Steelers 24 Broncos 17

Carolina @ Seattle
Seattle have been the standout team in the NFC all season but the Panther's are the form team of the playoffs in NFC and after watching Steve Smith take apart the Bears last week I'm going to have to go with them.
Panthers 27 Seahawks 17

It's Divisional Time!

Right, after my success in calling the Wildcard results (3-0, Manning 3 picks while Brady throws 3 TDs, anyone??), here's my shot at the divisional round. Dr. Z thinks this is the best week in football. The Championship games are too tense while the Superbowl is all hype and I can't say I disagree with him, especially when the Redskins are still there. Anyways, enough with the waxing lyrical about the weekend, on to predictions.

Washington @ Seattle
Everything is against Washington this week. Their quarterback is injured, their D line is battered, their secondary is in pieces. They're facing the League MVP and the most accurate quarterback in the NFL, surely they don't have a chance? Think again. If Clinton Portis has shaken off his sore shoulders and he can get the Washington running game going, then that opens up Santana Moss and the passing game. The Skins can contain Alexander and won when the sides met back in September, and Joe Gibbs will be on the sideline.
Redskins 24 Seahawks 17

New England @ Denver
This will be the toughest match either side have on the way to the Superbowl. Tougher even than if they play Indy in the Championship game. Denver are a fine side. They have run the ball tremendously all season while Jake Plummer has had his most accurate season of his career. Their secondary is second to none. But look who they're playing. The Patriots are back. The only question mark is can Corey Dillon get going on the ground because without a running game even Tom Brady will struggle to beat the Broncos through the air. The Broncos should be favourites, but they haven't won 3 World titles in 4 years.
Patriots 31 Broncos 28

Pittsburgh @ Indianapolis
The Colts' starters haven played a full game in a month. Will they be rested or rusty? I say rested. Peyton throws for 4 TDs and Edge runs for 125yds. The Steelers are a solid side. But solid isn't going to cut it in a dome against these Colts.
Steelers 14 Colts 38

Carolina @ Chicago
You thought the Redskins and the Buccs was a defensive struggle? Wait till you see this one! Two top defenses and two struggling offenses make this game one for the purists. One touchdown could be the difference and I fancy Dellhomme to Smith could be it.
Panthers 13 Bears 6

Playoffs!!!

In honor of Sports Illustrated's Peter King here are my picks for wildcard weekend:

Jacksonville @ New England
Tom Brady throws for 353 yards and 3 touchdowns, Byron Leftwich gets sacked 6 times. Jimmy Smith is shut out, while Deoin Branch repeats his Superbowl performance last year.
Jaguars 10 Patriots 31

Carolina @ New York
Eli Manning will lead the Giants to a Superbowl, but not this year. He throws 3 picks while Jake Dellhome and the Panthers do just enough to keep New York, and especially Tiki Barber, at arms length.
Panthers 17 Giants 14

Pittsburgh @ Cincinnatti
I love this game. Carson Palmer's probably equaled only by Tom Brady and Peyton Manning in the NFL but he struggled at home against the Steelers earlier on in the season. He redeemed himself at Heinz Field a few weeks ago but this time will be different. The Bengals won't stop The Bus who'll run for 3 TDs and Troy Palumalu will cause havoc for the Steelers.
Steelers 28 Bengals 14

The Skin's game is already over and my boys have won an epic over Tampa 17-10. For the record I called Washington 24-17